Broncos edge Buccaneers
Football Betting Lines
10/05/2008 -
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Prater nailed all three of his field goal
attempts, including a 55-yarder, and Brandon Stokley accounted for Denver's
only touchdown, as the Broncos grinded out a 16-13 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Jay Cutler threw for 227 yards and the touchdown to Stokley, completing 23-
of-34 passes for Denver (4-1), which rebounded after a disappointing loss in
Kansas City last week. Stokley finished with a team-high six receptions for 52
yards, while Tony Scheffler logged 65 yards on four grabs. Michael Pittman led
the Broncos rushing attack with 39 yards against his old team.
"Good teams find a way to win these games," Stokley said. "We didn't play well
last week but the whole team had a good game today."
Former Bronco Brian Griese was an efficient 13-of-19 but threw for just 88
yards before leaving with a shoulder injury. Jeff Garcia, who had not played
since the season's opening week, came on and hit 13-of-17 passes for 93 yards
with a touchdown and an interception for Tampa Bay (3-2), which had its
three-game winning streak broken.
Ike Hilliard caught a late touchdown, while Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham
contributed 74 and 59 yards on the ground, respectively.
The Broncos broke a 6-6 tie by taking advantage of good field position midway
through the third quarter. Denver took over on the Tampa Bay 47, and Pittman
steam-rolled his way up the middle for a 16-yard gain on 3rd-and-5.
Scheffler followed with a 16-yard reception down to the 10, and on the next
play Stokley caught a quick toss from his slot position. Brandon Marshall
threw a key block on the left sideline, allowing his teammate to get in the
end zone with just under six minutes left in the third.
Garcia's first full series under center resulted in two false-start penalties
and a three-and-out.
"You have to get adjusted to the situations and that was evident with our
struggles my first few drives," Garcia said. "It's not the way I want to go in
and compete. We only had six points so obviously it wasn't going to be easy."
Denver then used a mix of runs and short passes during a time-consuming, 14-
play possession, which resulted in a Prater 27-yard field goal with 12:24
remaining on the clock.
The Bucs caught a break when Garcia threw an interception directly to Marcus
Thomas deep in Tampa Bay territory, but the defensive lineman promptly fumbled
and the Bucs recovered at their own 12.
The visitors couldn't muster much on the ensuing drive, but Garcia led them
down on their next possession to make it a one-score game, hitting Hilliard on
a quick seven-yard TD strike with 2:02 left on the clock.
Tampa Bay decided to kick it deep rather than go for the onsides kick, and
Denver got two first downs to salvage its sixth straight home win.
"Obviously that was a nice team win," Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan said.
"We beat a good team in Tampa Bay, they're a team that'll be in the playoffs.
Excellent defense, offense and special teams. Our guys fought hard for 60
minutes and that's what I'm most proud of."
Both defenses kept the opposition out of the end zone in the first half.
Dunn's 38-yard scamper helped get the Buccaneers on the board, as Matt Bryant
knocked in a 33-yard field goal with 4:28 left in the first quarter.
Denver's next drive stalled, but a seven-yard completion to Pittman set up
Prater's 55-yard attempt, which went through the uprights by a good 10 yards
on the first play of the second quarter.
"I thought [Prater] was the big story of the game," Tampa Bay head coach Jon
Gruden said. "He did an outstanding job kicking the ball."
A pair of Denver penalties in Bucs territory hindered another Broncos drive in
the second, though the hosts still came away with three points on Prater's 40-
yard boot.
The Bucs took over with just over two minutes left in the half and managed to
work their way down the field and tie the score at the halftime buzzer on
Bryant's 31-yard kick.
Game Notes
Tampa Bay was without wide receiver Joey Galloway (foot) for the third
straight game...Griese was a third-round pick of the Broncos in 1998 and
started 51 games as a member of the team from 1999 through 2002. The Michigan
product had won all three of his starts this season...Pittman spent six years
with Tampa Bay (2002-07)...The Broncos lead the all-time series with the Bucs,
5-2...Shanahan is 9-1 all-time against Gruden...Marshall, who was tied for the
league-lead in receptions entering the week, caught just three balls for 25
yards...Antonio Bryant led all Bucs receivers with seven receptions for 58
yards.
<< Cassel, Moss help Pats top Niners
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Randy Moss caught five passes for 111
yards and scored one touchdown to lead the New England Patriots to a 30-21
victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5 action.
Matt Cassel was 22-of-32 p
<< Danks, Wise help ChiSox stay alive against Rays
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DeWayne Wise hit a two-run double in Chicago's
three-run fourth, and the White Sox staved off elimination with a 5-3 win over
the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of their American League Division Series.
Tampa Bay s
<< Cowboys tested but keep Bengals out of win column
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Romo threw for three touchdowns, including
two in the fourth quarter, to lead the Dallas Cowboys to a 31-22 victory over
the Cincinnati Bengals at Texas Stadium.
Romo completed 14-of-23 passes for 17
<< Williams, Panthers maul Chiefs
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DeAngelo Williams ran for two touchdowns and
caught a scoring pass in Carolina's 34-0 drubbing of the listless Kansas City
Chiefs.
Williams gained a career-high 123 yards on 20 carries for the Panthers (4-
<< Bills' Edwards leaves with concussion
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buffalo Bills quarterback Trent Edwards was
forced to leave Sunday's 41-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals with a
concussion.
Buffalo started the game with the ball and Edwards completed three s
Bucs QB Griese leaves game against Broncos >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Brian Griese
left in the third quarter of Sunday's 16-13 loss to the Denver Broncos with a
shoulder injury.
Griese, who was drafted by Denver in the third round of the 199
Orton, Bears rout Lions >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Orton threw for a career-high 334
yards and two touchdowns as Chicago routed Detroit, 34-7, in the latest
installment of their 79-year-old rivalry at Ford Field.
Orton completed 24-of-34 pa
Manning, Colts rally to stun Texans >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Peyton Manning's five-yard touchdown pass to
Reggie Wayne with just under two minutes to go capped a furious Indianapolis
comeback as the Colts stunned Houston, 31-27.
Trailing 27-10 late in the fourt
Hornets' Chandler hurts ankle >>
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Orleans Hornets center Tyson Chandler
left Sunday's 106-103 preseason-opening victory over the Golden State
Warriors in the first quarter with a sprained right ankle.
The injury occurred un
Warner and Cardinals deal Buffalo first loss of season >>
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kurt Warner threw a pair of touchdown passes
and Tim Hightower scored twice, as the Arizona Cardinals cruised past the
previously unbeaten Buffalo Bills, 41-17.
Warner hit on 33-of-42 pass attempts for
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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